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An Analysis of Israel’s Actions Since October 7

Amid regional escalation, the future remains uncertain

Content warning: mention of death, war, genocide

Numbers and events may have changed between the time of writing and the publishing of the article

It has been one year since Hamas launched Israel’s deadliest terrorist attack, killing over 1200 Israelis and taking more than 250 hostages. The immediate Israeli military response has since devastated the Gaza Strip, displacing around 90 per cent of its population, and killing 41,788 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s health authorities. Israel has also continuously been putting pressure on neighboring countries. In the past weeks, the Israeli army has pursued increasingly violent attacks on Lebanon, severely weakening Hezbollah’s leadership, prompting Iran to retaliate with a large-scale missile strike against Israel. Meanwhile international organizations have proved incapable of bringing an end to the violence.

Despite multiple international calls for de-escalation and investigations into Israeli war crimes, Israel has continued to navigate multiple military fronts. In the past weeks, it has continued its relentless bombing of the Gaza Strip while also targeting Yemen, Syria, Iran and Lebanon. For the past three weeks, Israel has bombarded Lebanon with airstrikes, killing over 2000 people while injuring nearly 7500 others. In addition to their aerial attacks, Israel announced its decision to begin “ground operations” in Southern Lebanon, reminiscent of their invasion four decades ago. While the Israeli government’s stated goal has been to take down Hezbollah’s structural organization, calling this a “limited, localized and targeted” operation. But the reality on the ground is far from this as shown by the growing number of civilian deaths.

The tensions between the Iranian-backed Hezbollah and Israel are decades old. The militant group Hezbollah was founded in 1982, after Israel seized Lebanon, creating a humanitarian crisis in the southern part of the country. Israel has been targeting Hezbollah leadership in hopes of dismantling the organization, launching one of the most intense aerial campaigns in the Middle East within the past two decades, as Airwars, a nonprofit that monitors military conflicts on Islamic states, reported. Following Iran’s missile strike against Israel, Iranian spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani, said that they are not seeking a broader regional war. However, as tensions increase between Israel, Lebanon, and Iran, hopes for de-escalation are slim.

As Israel pursued its systematic attacks on Gaza, with disregard for civilian victims and the urgent calls for humanitarian aid, the government increasingly faced criticism from its citizens and grew more and more isolated from the international community. Over the course of the year, thousands protested across Israel calling for Prime Minister Netanyahu’s resignation, and for a cease-fire allowing hostages to return home safely. From the perspective of many of these protesters, Israel’s image as a regional superpower was damaged following the October 7 attacks and their failure to safely return all the hostages. However, since the pager attacks in Lebanon, the current seems to have changed. Recent polls show that Netanyahu’s far right coalition party, Likud, is steadily recovering. The series of successful targeted attacks on leaders of Hezbollah boosted a renewed support for the offensive warfare and created a rally round- the-flag effect in favour of Netanyahu’s government.

For the past year, international organizations and world leaders have been faced with the fact that stability will not be reached unless a solution responding to both Palestinian and Israeli national aspirations is reached. Today, a negotiated settlement seems more distant than ever.

There are several reasons why ceasefire deals and talks for consensual agreements have fallen through. Democratic countries such as the US and Israel “are essential for promoting the rule of law…and for ensuring public trust in democratic systems of governance,” the UN announced in a statement. However, Israel’s impunity from its crimes against Gaza, as well as the US and Israel’s threats of retaliation against ICC and ICJ have demonstrated their lack of intention to end the war and protect human rights. Furthermore, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to launch military bombardment across Gaza, despite there being no real progress in achieving a ceasefire deal.

International structures designed to maintain international peace and security have consistently failed to effectively carry out resolutions. United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres released a statement with Al Jazeera on the failures of the Security Council to bring about political change in the region. He believes that the Security Council’s mechanisms at resolving conflict are outdated, referencing the permanent members’ veto powers and the severe obstacles it poses for action. Furthermore, if the Security Council cannot tackle the humanitarian crises that it was designed to, it hinders other UN agencies, such as the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) from completing their tasks. With the recent developments regarding Israel’s shifted focus on Lebanon and Iran, UN experts admitted that “the ballooning violence adds immensely to the instability and the ongoing suffering of civilians in the wider region, including in Palestine.”

Previous peace frameworks, such as the Oslo Accords in 1993, have been unsuccessful at mitigating tensions between Palestinian self-determination and Israel’s desire for domination. For years after the failure of the Accords became evident, the United States and other major powers took a back-seat role in possible negotiations between Palestine and Israel, allowing these tensions to worsen.

What comes next? After one year, the conflict shows no signs of ending. It seems that with US continued support of Israel, refusing to restrict its weapons shipments, alongside Hezbollah’s commitment to continue attacks on Israel until a Gaza ceasefire is achieved; and the ongoing collapse of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza the situation won’t change.

This has also been a year of student uprisings, protests and counter protests. Students in Montreal have been relentlessly organizing marches and protest in solidarity with Gaza and now Lebanon, continuing to call upon the government and university administrations to divest from Israel and recognize the ongoing genocide. Additionally, the Palestinian Youth Movement, alongside other student led organizations held marches commemorating “One Year of Genocide, One Year of Resistance” from October 5 to 7.

India Mosca

On October 5 the Palestinian Youth Movement called for an International Day of Action. Thousands of people marched in over 50 cities across the US and Canada to mark one year of mobilization and solidarity with the people of Palestine and Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and all those victims of Israel’s violent attacks. Here in Montreal thousands met on Place des Arts. Students and Professors from McGill, Concordia and other institutions joined the rally to the rhythm of drums and slogans. Amongst the speakers was activist Katsi’tsakwas Ellen Gabriel. She spoke out to the crowd, denouncing the genocide, celebrating the strength of students and others to stand together, and reaffirming the shared struggle of Indigenous peoples and Palestinians against colonial oppression and occupation. “We see, as Indigenous people, commonalities between our struggles. We know what genocide is like. Our people united, our people are strong in standing with Palestine” she said. For hours, the steps and slogans resonated through the streets of downtown until Atwater, reminding the world that “the people united will never be defeated”

As a response to the different calls to mobilize McGill and Concordia have decided to restrict access to their campuses. At the time of writing, it has been communicated with students that access to the downtown campus until October 7 will require a McGill ID or a permission letter for visitors to enter. They justified these measures to “prioritize the stable continuation of critical academic activities at a time when there is an elevated potential for disruption” even if there have been no threats to physical safety.

Students at McGill and in the Montreal community at large have displayed their solidarity with the Lebanese people. On October 1, Students for Palestine’s Honour and Resistance (SPHR) McGill and Concordia alongside other student-led groups held a vigil for Lebanon on the campus lower field. Speakers were students from McGill and Concordia, and professor Michelle Hartman reading out a poem written by professor Rula Abisaab. Around 100 students gathered, with candles and Palestinian flags being held next to Lebanese ones. Speakers later condemned the systematic violence carried out against Lebanese people and the genocide in Gaza, while praising the power of resistance and the sustained need for solidarity and collective actions.

A member of Montreal’s Lebanese community has shared their perspective on issues ensuing back home. “As a Lebanese student living in Canada, I can share that many of us are deeply concerned about the ongoing threat in southern Lebanon, even though we’re miles away,” said Sarah Tehini, a U1 Computer Engineering student at McGill. “The situation with Israel is something we’ve grown up hearing about, but now it feelslike things could escalate at any moment.” She expressed concerns about the future state of Lebanon if Israel proceeds with its current military tactics. “We worry about being able to visit home, or if there will even be a ‘home’ to return to. There’s this overwhelming sense of uncertainty about whether Lebanon will ever find stability again, and it’s heartbreaking,” she said on behalf of herself and other Lebanese students in her community.

In light of Tehini’s worries, she still believes there is room for hope. “Despite everything, the resilience of the Lebanese people keeps us hopeful. No matter how much we’ve been through, our love for our country keeps us holding on to hope for a better future,” she concluded.