On January 6th, Justin Trudeau announced his resignation from the position of Prime Minister of Canada, which he has occupied for the past nine years. This comes at a time when his support rates among the electorate, the government, and his own party are at their lowest. Canada is simultaneously facing increasing economic pressures from both within and out: the housing crisis, the carbon tax debate, and immigration — specifically, whether the Canadian housing market can accommodate high numbers of newcomers in its current condition. On top of everything, the events across the border, including tariffs threats voiced by Donald Trump and his statements about Canada joining the United States, pose significant challenges to the Canadian political landscape.
Governor General Mary Simon has granted prorogation at the request of Trudeau, which will suspend parliamentary activity and with it, any non-finalized policy until March 24. This gives the Liberal Party a little over two months to elect a new leader and face the imminent non-confidence vote. The leaders of the Conservative Party and the New Democratic Party have promised to initiate this vote in order to trigger national elections, which were not to be held until October this year.
At the moment, Cabinet ministers in the Parliament continue to carry out their day-to-day operations, but new laws, including the non-confidence vote, have been frozen until the end of March. Considering the current state of affairs, Canada’s internal battles, and mounting pressures exercised by Trump, what does this prorogation really mean?
First, it means that national elections will be held much sooner, giving the Conservative Party an advantage. In fact, polls suggest that if national elections were held now, Poilievre and his party would have an upper hand.
However, some experts suggest that Trudeau could request a second prorogation, which has been done in the past by other political figures. This would delay the national elections, potentially giving the Liberal Party more time to reorganize in preparation to face the Conservatives on the electoral stage.
Second, it remains unclear how the new Party leader would be chosen, since the time to do so is limited. Normally, this process is carried out over a period of five months, which is not possible at this time without another propagation.
The candidates who have the potential to replace Trudeau include former Deputy and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, who resigned from the Liberal ranks in December, triggering a wave of dissatisfaction with Trudeau’s leadership among party members. Mark Carney, former head of the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, is another potential candidate. He has stated that he is currently considering the possibility of running for the leadership of the Liberal Party. This statement has been met with a certain degree of skepticism about the viability of his candidature, due to the fact that he has never held political office before.
It is clear that in the upcoming elections, the question of foreign policy, relating to the United States in particular, will be one of the main concerns for the electorate. This is especially pressing considering the fact that Deputy Minister Freeland has resigned partly due to her disagreement with Trudeau regarding the appropriate response to the economic policies promised by Trump. Her harsh criticism of Trudeau has certainly left a mark, and the new Liberal leader will have the task of formulating a response that would be supported by their party members and the electorate.
Polls indicate that a majority of Canadians support Trudeau’s decision to resign, as well as displaying a general sense of weariness among the public when it comes to the ten-year-long Liberal government. Some thus suggest that no matter who takes on the leadership position, the Liberal Party is doomed to lose the upcoming elections. The task at hand for the new Liberal leader would therefore be not only to regain the support of those who grew tired of the Liberal Party, but also to present the voters with a program that would address relevant, monumental issues faced by Canadian society.